3月28日，中國國家主席習近平出席博鰲亞洲論壇2016年年會并發(fā)表主旨演講。開幕式前，習近平與出席論壇年會的外國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人合影。

　　大公網(wǎng)評論員 宋代倫

　　為時四天的2016博鰲亞洲論壇已經(jīng)閉幕。雖然僅僅四天，但已成為創(chuàng)會以來會期最長的一次。承接三月中旬閉幕的全國兩會，關(guān)于中國，關(guān)于亞洲，關(guān)于世界各種大問題的討論，帶著熱氣都延續(xù)到了海南這座美麗小鎮(zhèn)。

　　博鰲論壇誕生于2001年春，這一年是21世紀的元年�？梢哉f，博鰲亞洲論壇誕生于新世紀的亞洲，也注定去構(gòu)建亞洲的新世紀。同樣在這一年秋，中國還舉辦了APEC，加入了世貿(mào)組織。也是這一年，9·11事件震驚世界。中國開始逐漸走進世界體系并參與其中，美國也開始了新一輪全球戰(zhàn)略布局，21世紀就這樣開始了。

　　時過境遷，雖然才短短十四年，但國際政經(jīng)格局已經(jīng)發(fā)生巨變。西方發(fā)生了金融危機，至今尚未走出這一周期。而與此同時，中國的GDP總量以美元計已從破一萬億，猛增到破十萬億;金磚國家從2001年經(jīng)濟學家的概念，變成實在的多邊外交合作機制。按購買力平價計，不但中國GDP超過了美國，金磚國家也超過了七國集團。世界已不再是西方包打天下的世界。

　　短短十四年，博鰲亞洲論壇見證了這一格局改變的全過程。復(fù)旦大學的沈丁立教授認為，論壇見證了中國從融入國際體系，到擔任新生的亞洲論壇的永久東道國，并在此后的十多年中與亞洲各國協(xié)力并擔任引領(lǐng)，尤其是在議程設(shè)置上推動亞洲的經(jīng)濟合作，充分顯示了中國自信與擔當。

　　從歷屆論壇中國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的主旨演講來看，我們能清楚看到這一點。“合作”“發(fā)展”“共贏”等是出現(xiàn)頻率最高的詞匯，這既是論壇創(chuàng)立的初衷，也是一以貫之延續(xù)到未來的主題。亞洲與世界因合作而發(fā)展，因發(fā)展更加緊密地合作，以實現(xiàn)共贏。

　　“互聯(lián)互通”成為當下中國外交話語中的熱詞，它首次出現(xiàn)于胡錦濤在2008年的主旨演講中，其中提到了“深化財政金融合作，促進亞洲基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)互聯(lián)互通”。到2013年，習近平在演講中又稱“中國將加快同周邊國家的互聯(lián)互通建設(shè)，積極探討搭建地區(qū)性融資平臺，促進區(qū)域內(nèi)經(jīng)濟融合”。經(jīng)過數(shù)年話語與實踐的積累，這一構(gòu)想在今年的論壇期間發(fā)展成了舉世矚目的焦點。

　　3月12日英國的“反水”拉開了亞投行版圖擴張的大幕。此后，除美日外，西方主要國家紛紛申請加入。論壇期間，俄羅斯與巴西的加入，使得金磚五國除南非外也聚在了一起。亞投行成為現(xiàn)象級的討論話題，更被認為是中國改變二戰(zhàn)后世界政經(jīng)格局的開始。

　　與此同時，三部委也在習近平演講的當天下午，發(fā)布了“一帶一路”愿景與行動文件，被認為是官方關(guān)于“一帶一路”的總體規(guī)劃。這把本次論壇與相關(guān)議題的討論推向了最高潮。在博鰲論壇期間，習近平還密集會見多國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人�？梢哉f，博鰲論壇經(jīng)過十幾年的發(fā)展，已經(jīng)不僅僅是個對話的空間，而是逐漸走向中國推動多邊外交與合作交流的機制。中國人民大學王義桅教授提出“博鰲外交”的說法，并認為博鰲論壇已經(jīng)超越了一般論壇的性質(zhì)，現(xiàn)在它更多的是觀察中國政策和重大倡議的渠道之一。

　　無論是一帶一路、絲路基金，還是亞投行、東盟共同體，這都是中國主導(dǎo)下面向亞洲與世界的外交大戰(zhàn)略與大平臺。將它們的力量疊加在一起看，中國正在走上全面促進亞洲區(qū)域整合的引領(lǐng)之路，并輻射到歐洲、非洲、澳洲甚至南美。這一整合力度與廣度之空前，確實是二戰(zhàn)之后前所未見。正如王毅外長經(jīng)常說的，“我們的 '朋友圈'越來越大，我們的伙伴越來越多”。

　　羅伯特·勞倫斯·庫恩近日撰文指出，為推動國際秩序的歷史變革，習近平把中國的外交政策重塑為“積極參與”。中國從一個跟隨時代的奔跑者轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)榫哂袆?chuàng)新力的引領(lǐng)者。“中國外交正出現(xiàn)重大'拐點'，習近平正帶領(lǐng)中國以更主動的姿態(tài)融入世界”。

　　回過頭來梳理本屆論壇上習近平的主旨演講，我們會發(fā)現(xiàn)，由于適逢二戰(zhàn)結(jié)束70周年，這場演講充滿了歷史感，同時現(xiàn)實感與未來感并存。我們看到，習近平在演講中把亞洲發(fā)展放在整個二戰(zhàn)以來的歷史大背景來講述，充滿歷史縱深感。

　　2013年，習近平在主旨演講中強調(diào)“牢固樹立命運共同體意識”，這已經(jīng)成為中國當下與未來的核心外交理念之一。今年，“命運共同體”首次作為論壇主題，并在演講中反復(fù)強調(diào)。這已經(jīng)成為中國新時期外交的核心理念之一。

　　作為面積最大、人口最多的洲，亞洲注定在未來的世界格局中扮演越來越重要的作用。而中國因為巨大的體量與發(fā)展?jié)摿�，又成為其中的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者。外媒認為中國將扮演“亞洲盟主”角色，進而走上支配亞洲，與西方對抗的道路。這種看法并未擺脫冷戰(zhàn)以及后冷戰(zhàn)時期的霸權(quán)主義與強權(quán)政治思維。

　　雖然二戰(zhàn)后美國主導(dǎo)的世界格局仍然維持相對穩(wěn)定，但整個世界并沒有形成一個較為清晰的世界觀，而是長期處于無政府主義狀態(tài)。一個沒有世界觀的世界，許多全球性與區(qū)域性難題仍然無法解決。中國一直倡導(dǎo)新型國際關(guān)系的建立，但多年來一直停留在話語層面。伴隨綜合國力的提升，中國在適當?shù)臅r刻提出了“命運共同體”這一理念，以合作與共贏為核心，并依托一帶一路、亞太自貿(mào)區(qū)、亞投行等平臺機制，使這一理念從亞洲走向世界。

　　王毅外長在最近的一次演講中，精辟地解釋了新型國際關(guān)系的應(yīng)有之義：“以合作取代對抗，以共贏取代獨占，不再搞零和博弈和贏者通吃那一套。”王毅還認為，各國應(yīng)真正樹立起利益共同體意識，在共同發(fā)展中尋求各方利益的最大公約數(shù)。

　　2016年剛開始的時候，關(guān)于“中國世紀”的討論不絕于耳，背景是2014年按購買力平價計中國GDP已超越美國成為第一。這個論斷的憑據(jù)雖然有些“簡單粗暴”，但這個巨大的事實確實存在，無法忽視。中國與亞洲經(jīng)濟實力的上升，使得世界經(jīng)濟的重心點開始加速向亞洲游移(見附圖)。根據(jù)研究，在2050年前后即新中國成立百年之際，重心點將來到中國與印度之間。歷史似乎完成了循環(huán)。而經(jīng)濟重心改變的同時，也是新世界觀的逐步建立。

　　中國新型的世界秩序觀正努力形成。多年后回看歷史，本屆博鰲亞洲論壇，或是中國開始實質(zhì)建立中國亞洲觀與世界觀的起始。

       

Get up to speed on the Iran nuclear deal - CNN.comWashington (CNN)American diplomats are in the final stretch of negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program.World powers, including the United States, want to curb Iran's nuclear program to keep it from developing a nuclear bomb, and Iran is eager to throw off the sanctions that have constricted its economy for several years -- but it's also keen to hold on to as much of its nuclear program as it can.U.S. puts onus on Iran to reach nuclear dealNegotiators must reach a deal -- or leave it on the table -- by the end of the day on Tuesday, the deadline to reach a framework agreement. If the parties succeed, they will have until the end of June to hammer out all the specific details to flesh out the framework and make it a complete deal.The officials negotiating with Iran are from the so-called P5+1 (the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council ― the United States, the UK., France, China and Germany -- plus Germany). Right now, they're still haggling over certain technical details.So what are those technical details? And how do those details relate to keeping Iran from making a bomb? Here's a guide to the key terms and major concerns animating the talks this week.CentrifugesIran already has a lot of the building blocks necessary for a nuclear bomb -- such as centrifuges, which are the machines that turn natural uranium into the key ingredient, highly enriched uranium, needed to make a bomb.Centrifuges are tube-shaped machines that use centrifugal force to enrich uranium. Natural uranium goes in and, after what is essentially a spin cycle, more highly concentrated uranium ripe for a nuclear reaction comes out.A major point of contention has been the number and sophistication of centrifuges Iran can continue operating as part of the deal.Iran currently has about 18,000 centrifuges, 10,000 of which are still spinning today. Under a deal, the country would likely have to cut down the number of centrifuges it uses to about 6,000.Uranium enrichmentIranian officials insist their nuclear program is intended for peaceful purposes, and it can be hard to tell what a facility is designed for. Enriched uranium can be used to fuel a nuclear reaction to produce either energy for electricity, or -- in much larger quantities and higher concentrations -- a nuclear bomb.Just WatchedKerry: Substantial progress made with IranreplayMore Videos ...Kerry: Substantial progress made with Iran 01:47PLAY VIDEOSo you can't just use any enriched uranium to create a bomb -- it needs to be highly concentrated.Weapons-grade uranium is enriched to over 90%, while most civilian reactors use about 3.5% enriched uranium.Those percentages are misleading, though: Once you've got uranium enriched to 3.5%, you're about halfway to weapons-grade uranium.Until recently, Iran was holding onto a stock of 20%-enriched uranium, which is essentially "within striking distance of weapons-grade uranium," said Robert Kelley, a former nuclear weapons inspector with the United Nations.Last summer, as part of an earlier stage of the negotiating process, Iran effectively watered down that highly enriched uranium to 5%."That's kind of a big deal because you spend a lot of money making that 20%," Kelley said. "It's like you've made gold and you're turning it into lead."The Obama administration has touted its negotiations with Iran as "freezing" the country's nuclear program, pointing out that it has capped Iran's enrichment at 5%.An eventual deal will almost certainly cap uranium enrichment, just the first component in holding Iran to a one-year breakout time.Breakout timeThat's the amount of time it would take Iran to enrich enough uranium for one nuclear bomb. The idea of the negotiations -- from the West's perspective -- is to lengthen that time frame.Right now Iran could break out in two to three months if it decided to take its current stockpile of uranium and rush toward enriching it to weapons-grade levels.The U.S. is aiming to hold Iran to a one-year breakout time. And to achieve that, negotiators and nuclear experts have been looking at more than just the much-talked-about number of centrifuges."If someone sits down and says to you there's so many centrifuges of such-and-such capacity, you can do the arithmetic and say in X months they'll produce this much [nuclear] material," Kelley explained.5 things you need to know about the Iran talksBut the calculations also depend on how effectively those centrifuges can produce enriched uranium.To get to a one-year breakout time, Iran would have to take thousands of its centrifuges offline (some argue they should be dismantled completely). And it would also have to switch up how the centrifuges are configured to make them less efficient at enriching uranium.Those include changing the spinning speed of the centrifuges or organizing them in a less efficient cascade, which is the process by which uranium becomes progressively more enriched through different centrifuges.And it's those factors that can complicate the basic calculations to estimate breakout time.Shipping out uranium stockpilesTalks hit a snag just days from the deadline when Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Sunday that his country had no plans to export its enriched uranium.That could be a major hurdle in the final push for a deal, as Western diplomats were banking on Iran's earlier tentative commitment to ship its stockpile of enriched uranium to Russia. There the stockpile would be converted into fuel rods to power peaceful nuclear reactors -- and not an atomic bomb.While Iran has already capped its uranium enrichment at 5% under preliminary agreements to continue negotiations, the U.S. and its Western allies fear that Iran could rush to enrich that uranium to higher levels. It would be much more difficult for Iran to reconvert fuel rods into highly enriched uranium destined for a nuclear bomb than if they had their stockpile of uranium at hand.Having the fuel shipped abroad and converted to fuel rods would increase the breakout time and quell fears that Iran could look to abandon a nuclear deal and rush toward weaponization.However, it's hard to know how Iran retaining the fuel would impact the breakout time, since it's just one of many factors. In that scenario, for instance, the U.S. might push for concessions in another area (i.e. fewer centrifuges) to keep the estimated breakout time at around one year.Israeli assessmentsWhile there's a broad-based international consensus of Iran's estimated breakout time, some, including Israeli nuclear experts and officials, take a more conservative approach in their calculations.Iran isn't that far from the Jewish state and has repeatedly threatened to wipe Israel off the map, so Israelis see the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran as an existential issue in a way that the United States doesn't. That's part of why when they assess estimates, they assume the shortest possibility in the time range.Just WatchedIsaac Herzog: We need to make sure Iran deal is goodreplayMore Videos ...Isaac Herzog: We need to make sure Iran deal is good 03:23PLAY VIDEOThey also think that every action by Iran that's reversible can and will be reversed more quickly than others tend to think."Everything they do to scale down -- let's say the rate of enrichment -- it's reversible," Ephraim Asculai, a 40-year veteran of the Israel Atomic Energy Commission, said of Iran. "Within a very, very short time."Asculai stressed that unless the number of centrifuges was drastically reduced, Iran would be no more than six months away from a nuclear bomb.Extending the breakout time gives the international community a greater window to react to violations if Iran breaks the terms of the deal and tries to go for a bomb. Israel wants as large a window as possible.InspectionsHow inspections will be handled is another major obstacle to a deal. The consensus among nuclear experts and officials from various countries is that Iran would need to be subjected to a rigorous inspections regime to ensure that it honors a deal and doesn't try to break out secretly.Inspections are carried out by the International Atomic Energy Agency, an arm of the United Nations tasked with monitoring nuclear activity around the world. But IAEA inspectors aren't the only ones keeping tabs on Iran's nuclear program; Western intelligence agencies continue to work covertly to obtain more information on the program.IAEA inspectors currently visit or review surveillance footage daily from Iran's two largest reactors, Fordow and Arak, and inspect all of Iran's other declared nuclear facilities on a less frequent basis.So if Iranian scientists suddenly started to enrich uranium at higher levels at those sites, or tried to recalibrate the centrifuges to enrich faster, IAEA inspectors would notice it and quickly sound the alarm."Once the monitors see something suspicious, they're going to blow the whistle," said Mark Fitzpatrick, the director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies' nuclear nonproliferation program, who called the inspections Iran is currently subjected to "fairly rigorous."Iranian President: Nuclear deal within reachBut Fitzpatrick added that North Korea -- which broke out as a nuclear power after kicking out IAEA inspectors -- could serve as a lesson that inspections must be rigorous under any deal with Iran.It's not exactly clear what inspections would look like in the event of a deal, but it's likely Iran would face even more intensive monitoring.The half dozen nuclear experts interviewed by CNN said Iran would need to face more intrusive inspections that would allow inspectors to visit more sites and see more documents related to Iran's nuclear program, including its past nuclear weaponization research.They also called for a deal that would give inspectors free rein to investigate nuclear activity anywhere in the country, not just at sites Iran has declared host nuclear activity."We need to have the ability to basically go anywhere, anytime, to snoop around," said Michael Eisenstadt, an expert on Iran's nuclear program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "You need to have the freedom to move, and it's not clear that the Iranians will agree to that."Secret sitesIAEA inspectors have access to all of Iran's declared nuclear facilities, but there's a big fear that Iran could also be advancing its nuclear ambitions at secret sites, unknown to the world.And that's what's prompting calls for extremely intrusive inspections that would allow IAEA monitors to travel throughout Iran and gain access to any facility. By being close to a suspected facility, IAEA inspectors could detect nuclear activity through environmental sampling and testing.It wouldn't be the first time covert Iranian nuclear activity was detected: Several of the sites known to the IAEA today were previously undisclosed, hidden facilities -- and it took intelligence agencies years to uncover their locations.Iran: Key players in the nuclear talks 9 photosIran: Key players in the nuclear talks 9 photosU.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has been spearheading negotiations on a possible deal to rein in Iran's nuclear program.Hide Caption 1 of 9Iran: Key players in the nuclear talks 9 photosKerry, second from left, meets Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, second from right, for talks in Lausanne, Switzerland, on Monday, March 16. At the far left is U.S. Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz. At the far right is Ali Akbar Salehi, head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization.Hide Caption 2 of 9Iran: Key players in the nuclear talks 9 photosIranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei meets with environmental officials in Tehran, Iran, on Sunday, March 8.Hide Caption 3 of 9Iran: Key players in the nuclear talks 9 photosIranian President Hassan Rouhani speaks in September during a news conference in New York.Hide Caption 4 of 9Iran: Key players in the nuclear talks 9 photosWendy Sherman has been a key U.S. negotiator in the Iran talks. She is the under secretary of state for political affairs.Hide Caption 5 of 9Iran: Key players in the nuclear talks 9 photosFederica Mogherini, foreign policy chief for the European Union, has been representing the Europeans in nuclear talks with Iran.Hide Caption 6 of 9Iran: Key players in the nuclear talks 9 photosIran's parliament speaker Ali Larijani listens to a question during a news conference in Tehran on March 16.Hide Caption 7 of 9Iran: Key players in the nuclear talks 9 photosYukiya Amano is director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog.Hide Caption 8 of 9Iran: Key players in the nuclear talks 9 photosIran and world powers comprising the P5+1 negotiating team meet in Montreux, Switzerland, on Thursday, March 5.Hide Caption 9 of 9EXPAND GALLERYPakistan quietly emerged as a nuclear power using secret sites without the IAEA having a clue. And while the world knew South Africa was developing nuclear weapons, the international community didn't know how close they were until they already had several bombs' worth.Without wide-ranging access, inspectors can't know what they can't see and the discussion over breakout time is all but moot.But an intrusive inspections regime that would give IAEA monitors access to almost any facility is a tough sell for Iran, which already asserts that it is being treated differently from other countries that have faced inspections.It would subject Iran to an inspection regime unlike that of any other -- a special status the West argues Tehran has earned by repeatedly attempting to cheat already existing accords and hiding nuclear facilities.VerificationIAEA monitors would be able to detect any changes at Iran's nuclear facilities within days or weeks at most but then the verification process begins.IAEA inspectors would need to run the new information by the top ranks of the IAEA, who would then notify the international community. American and other intelligence agencies would then likely want to verify that information themselves before considering any action.Maj. Gen. Yaakov Amidror, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's former national security adviser, assessed that it would take months for Washington to feel confident enough about Iranian violations to act to halt Iran's progress -- by which time, he fears, it would be too late to stop them without a sufficient breakout margin.PunishmentIranian violations would likely be handled through the U.N. Security Council, which would look to sanction Iran if it violates a nuclear agreement. But how those countries -- especially the permanent members -- would handle those violations would likely be included in an eventual deal.Either way, it probably wouldn't be a quick process. Reestablishing international sanctions that would get peeled away under an agreement could also take longer than the time needed for Iran to get a bomb, Amidror warned.Extending the breakout time gives the U.S. and allies time to exhaust these diplomatic and sanctions-related efforts to stop Iran from speeding toward a nuclear weapon before moving to their last resort: a military option."What you want to do is ... make sure there's plenty of time to react to Iranian cheating and enough time to mount an international and domestic effort to prevent them from succeeding," said David Albright, a nuclear expert and president of the Institute for Science and International Security. "It takes you longer than you may think for the President to take major action."Eisenstadt of the Washington Institute agreed: "We just know how difficult it is to get people to agree to difficult decisions and how long it takes politically to mobilize the U.S. government first and then our allies."Just WatchedTour de John Kerry: Nukes and bikesreplayMore Videos ...Tour de John Kerry: Nukes and bikes 01:20

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